Acabei de tirar a carne do congelador: a tentação foi mais forte do que eu

Prometi a mim mesmo que enquanto se mantivesse esta indefinição dos mercados (nem o pai morre nem a gente almoça) não adquiria qualquer ativo financeiro.  Mas a tentação (e para não falhar uma oportunidade única) foi mais forte do que eu.
Acabo de comprar EDPR. E fiz esta aquisição com base nos seguintes pressupostos:
1 - Fase da Lua: a lua começou a sua fase crescente que irá culminar na Lua Cheia, em 05/06/2020;
2 - Anúncio público da venda de ativos da EDPR, sedeados na Ibéria;
3 - A venda de ativos duma cotada não tem, regra geral,  um efeito  relevante na sua cotação. Mas...
4 - A venda de ativos da EDPR irá fazer com que a mesma  seja exposta, dissecada e badalada nos media do mundo (inteiro);
5 - Esse facto poderá favorecer a entrada de novos investidores, curiosos, a fazer contas, extrapolações e comparações com outras empresas  do setor;
6 - Bem como o reforço dos investidores atuais que irão igualmente fazer contas;
7 - Pelas notícias vindas a público a EDPR tenciona obter mais de 500 ME com a venda de cerca 250 MW de capacidade eólica instalada (mais de 2ME por MW de capacidade eólica instalada);
8 - Os recursos obtidos integrarão o plano estratégico da EDP de acrescentar até ao final de 2022 mais 7.000 MW de capacidade instalada renovável (2019-2022);
9 - Sabendo-se que a empresa contabilizava, em maio de 2020,  11.200 MW e sabendo-se que a sua dívida líquida, no  1.º trimestre de 2020, totalizava 2.683 ME, será interessante perceber a reação dos investidores a estes números;
10 - E quanto valerá esta cotada no final de 2022?

Objectivo do investimento: obter uma mais-valia de 5% nas próximas 10 sessões de bolsa.

PS: a capitalização em bolsa da EDPR (Market Cap)  é, actualmente, cerca de 10.000 ME
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Links:
https://www.edpr.com/pt-pt/noticias/2020/05/07/resultados-do-1t20-da-edp-renovaveis-execucao-no-bom-caminho-com-lucros

https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/empresas/energia/detalhe/edpr-negoceia-venda-de-ativos-em-portugal-e-espanha-encaixe-pode-superar-os-500-milhoes

https://www.dinheirovivo.pt/empresas/os-5-eixos-estrategicos-da-edp-para-2019-2022/

Hello, Traders Investors And Community And welcome to this extremely important foundational analysis about the stock-market-crash situation, where it is going and why the end of the bear-market could not be there already as some people believe. Last days and weeks we saw a recovery but this recovery is actually playing fully into the Wyckoff distributional events which I discovered and which we have in play for months now. Besides the corona-virus pandemic, we have a battered economy that is constituting on the distinctly shaky underground, the fact that a second lock-down wave from countries and can come and its resulting economic damage can easily move into the stock-market and lie ground for the next distributional events which will send the price to the basement in this still ongoing bear-market-environment. Even if the small small small percentage probability fulfills and the bear-market is completed now, the big crisis will just move some months/years into the future which will make it just increasingly more heavier damageful and devastational therefore we need to be prepared for these pending events which will more likely contribute in this current distributional cycle than after another bull-trap to the upside. This fact should bring us to the conclusion that we need to take the right action in such a market-environment which smart traders and investors should always prefer alongside the illogical speculative approach and therefore take the opportunity when they arise. As already mentioned in past analysis there are some sectors in the stock market that will profit from the crash like food, pharmacy or armory which are anticyclical to the market, when considering the long-side these truffles need to be picked out in this market environment. In my chart, we are looking at the weekly time-frame and as you can see there the whole distributional events in the current Wyckoff cycle are on the verge from phase B to phase C currently which providing valuable information because of the events we can expect to happen in phase C. At the moment the whole bull-rally which we see is suspected to be a huge bull-flag trapping many unadvanced people before taking the huge legs down which will come in phase C to phase D.

Phase A: This phase was actually the weakening of the whole bull-market we had since 2009, there the increasing expectation for a possible markdown phase entered the picture and the first serious supply entering the market in this phase. We saw the first heavy bearish volume spikes entering and the market provided the overall buying climax in the structure and after it the long sideways trending market with several attempts to test the demand-value and form the next heavy wave to the upside which did not provide and resulted in an automatic rally to the downside before we entered phase B.

Phase B: In the structure we had a long phase B with decreasing momentum of the bulls before the overall markdown and corona-fears hit the market, in the phase from December 18 to February this year we saw some beginning signs that a new awaited bearish market will develop when the market gets damaged. The Sign Of Weakness in Phase B provided a lower low before the final attempt for a continuation of the bull-market failed in the Up Thrust which trapped many long investors and traders in their positions selling shares to large institutional, this was the logical event after the weakening signs in phase A before the heavy volatile move to the downside came.

Phase C: Now this is the phase which we will enter soon, it is important in the structure because it is literally a bull-trap trapping breakout traders in their positions and selling them to a large institutions. This is exactly what we hear in the news now, many people taking advantage of the counterreaction and calling it an end of the bear-market but this is a fatal mistake, the overall phase C will match perfectly with its upcoming Last Point Of Supply which comes when the demand we have at the moment weakens in the structure set up for a leg to the downside. After the first demand-weakness established it lays ground to phase D in the structure.

Phase D: This phase will provide confusion in the markets with Signs Of Weakness and Last Points Of Supply, it will be a time where we see a consolidation movement in the stock-market confusing many people as if the bull-market is now really going on or not. After the last gaps of demand have risen in phase C we will increasingly see bullish weakness and bearish pressure, in this phase most of the institutional will be out of the market lying the ground for retail to sell below the last support level in the structure.

Phase E: This phase unfolds the heavy and significant selling pressure to the downside, the price will leave the trading range and trapping many people in its position to the downside. We will see a high volume and selling here which will spread out in the media and activates the meaningful retail selling, in this phase the opportunity for trade on the short-site will be huge as many companies struggling in the global economy and there will be insolvent companies on the mass scale which is actually a good environment for smart short-selling traders to profit from it. The importance of this phase is also that it marks the last point in the distributional events and new accumulational events can occur, you can see this level marked in orange at my chart. So this is the actual situation we are currently facing, in the months to come we will see how it will play out but one thing is sure, the real economy still struggling with the corona-restriction and have a hard time to come back to status quo this means the pressure can gain when the ground becomes more shaky. The whole rally we would see when the market "stopped" the bull-markets and continues bearish will be extremely speculative and all serious smart investors will stay out of the market and prefer the safety of cash, only the fact that investors like warren buffet are bullish and selling investments makes the bearish scenario and therefore its following Wyckoff distributional events more legit, in this case, we need to be prepared and take the proper action with trades on the short-side when the opportunities arise. In this manner this should give a good view, thanks for watching, support for more insights, and good week everybody! Comfort and prosperity have never enriched the world as much as adversity has.

Information provided is for educational purposes only and should not be used to take action in the markets.
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https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/4SjhiRT2-DISTRIBUTIONAL-EVENTS-The-Bear-Market-In-STOCKS-Will-Run-Fatal/

FRA

https://books.google.pt/books?id=a8bwqLnnLdQC&lpg=PA41&dq=Forward%20Rate%20Agreement&hl=pt-PT&pg=PR5#v=onepage&q&f=false

EDP e RWE: casamento anunciado

A comunicação social, anda a anunciar, que o Governo quer alemães a controlar EDP, entenda-se que a Parpública vai vender ao grupo de energia alemã RWE (que opera nas áreas da electricidade e do gás) o bloco de acções da EDP ainda nas mãos do Estado português.

E pode? E as entidades que superintendem a concorrência, em Portugal e na Comunidade, não são ouvidas nem achadas?
E a CMVM é um verbo de encher?
E os interesses dos accionistas minoritários são desprezados?
Isto não é um jornalismo pechisbeque: é um jornalismo de caca.

EDP - a noiva com quem todos querem casar ou a noiva que todos querem comer?

A Eletrobras, do Brasil, a Sonatrach da Argélia e a IPIC dos Emirados Árabes Unidos são os mais recentes pretendentes à mão da nossa EDP. Além dos consabidos e já consagrados: EDF (França), E.ON (Inglaterra), ENEL (Itália), RWE (Alemamha) . A espanhola IBERDROLA, em tempos, pensou fundir-se à EDP. Desistiu da ideia dada a oposição das entidades reguladoras de Portugal e de Espanha.
O negócio pode render ao Estado muitos milhões de Euros.

A EDP vai entrar em curto-circuito e a cotação vai explodir. Só não sei quando.

Galp dispara mais de 9%

A Galp brilha em Lisboa depois de o BG Group ter duplicado a sua estimativa para as reservas na Bacia de Santos, no Brasil.
As acções da petrolífera avançavam 7,64% para 16,63 euros, mas já estiveram a disparar 9,8%. Na base desta pressão compradora está a revisão em alta, para o dobro, das estimativas do BG Group para as reservas petrolíferas na Bacia de Santos, no Brasil. Dois terços do valor actual da Galp devem-se às reservas de petróleo no Brasil, onde a companhia opera em parceria com a Petrobras e a BG Group.

(Económico, 30/06/2011)

Até que enfim. Tinha a certeza que a Galp iria explodir.
Começou a festa. E vamos ver até onde ela vai.
O céu é o limite.

Valor da Galp - Take II

A Bacia de Santos, onde a Galp Energia detém participações em vários vários blocos (4 no total), poderá ter 123 mil milhões de barris de petróleo, de acordo com um estudo hoje divulgado no Brasil.

Esta previsão mais que duplica as estimativas oficiais do governo brasileiro.

Quem tem interesse em esconder da opinião pública a verdadeira dimensão das reservas em petróleo da Bacia de Santos?